Persistent inflows into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs are a positive factor boosting overall market confidence. Bitcoin price adjustments and signs of 'cycle exhaustion' suggest short-term market overheating and downside risk. The UAE's agreement on the automatic exchange of tax data and Bitcoin purchases by Japanese companies indicate expanding involvement from global institutional investors and growing market maturity. Market Bias: Neutral. While technical indicators lack directional conviction, fundamentals present a mix of positive inflows and negative corrective factors, warranting a cautious approach.

・Continued inflows into US spot Bitcoin ETFs suggest growing institutional interest in Bitcoin, fostering increased market confidence. This is expected to stabilize Bitcoin's price and encourage further capital inflows. In the long term, the proliferation of ETFs is a key factor in establishing Bitcoin's position as a major asset class. ・FTX's withdrawal from the US market highlights heightened regulatory scrutiny and stricter compliance requirements. This move will likely pressure other crypto exchanges towards more transparent operations and rigorous regulatory adherence. While regulatory clarity could contribute to healthy market development in the long run, it may also restrict the activities of some players in the short term. ・The UAE's signing of the OECD's CARF (Crypto-Asset Reporting Framework) signifies its commitment to international tax compliance and contributes to enhanced transparency across the entire crypto-asset market. This necessitates clearer understanding of tax obligations related to crypto transactions for both domestic and international investors in the UAE. While strengthened global tax cooperation may boost institutional adoption, it could potentially introduce new tax burdens for individual investors. ・The substantial unlocking of Hyperliquid (HYPE) tokens could lead to an oversupply in the market, potentially creating downward pressure on the price temporarily. Notably, observations of selling activity by prominent investors like Arthur Hayes might negatively impact investor sentiment. Close monitoring of the token release schedule and market supply-demand dynamics is essential. ・MicroStrategy's additional Bitcoin purchase demonstrates the company's ongoing strategy of accumulating Bitcoin and reflects institutional confidence in the asset. Changes in the macroeconomic environment, such as potential interest rate cuts, could also encourage investment in risk assets. This can be interpreted as a positive signal strengthening Bitcoin's position as a long-term store of value. ・Metaplanet's significant Bitcoin acquisition indicates rising interest in Bitcoin within the Asian region and diversification of corporate digital asset holdings strategies. This is expected to drive global Bitcoin adoption and attract capital from new investor entities. ・Bitcoin's price correction, falling to $112,000, and showing signs of 'cycle exhaustion' suggest a market that was overheated and is now entering an adjustment phase. The liquidation of leveraged positions amplifies short-term price volatility. Macroeconomic factors, such as Federal Reserve interest rate decisions and inflation indicators, will continue to influence future price movements. ・OKX's decision to postpone the launch of its perpetual DEX due to regulatory concerns underscores the significance of regulation in the crypto industry and the cautious approach authorities are taking towards derivative trading. Similar actions may be observed on other platforms until regulatory collaboration improves and clearer legal frameworks are established. ・The surge in suspicious virtual asset transactions flagged by South African authorities indicates increased monitoring for money laundering and illicit activities. This reflects a more proactive surveillance regime implemented by regulators to maintain the integrity of the crypto market. Overall Summary: This week's cryptocurrency market was supported by sustained inflows into US Bitcoin ETFs, while Bitcoin price corrections and concerns over large token unlocks for certain tokens exerted short-term downward pressure. The UAE's international tax agreement and the Bitcoin purchases by Japanese companies highlight expanding global institutional involvement and a trend towards regulatory compliance, suggesting market maturation. Moving forward, macroeconomic indicators and national regulatory developments are expected to be the primary drivers of market direction.

Potential downside risks include supply pressure on the market stemming from the substantial unlocking of Hyperliquid (HYPE) tokens. A correction in Bitcoin's price and signs of "cycle exhaustion" could lead to a deterioration of overall market sentiment. Increased regulatory scrutiny, exemplified by rising suspicious transaction reports in South Africa and OKX's decision to postpone its DEX launch, heightens compliance risks. The critical support level is the recent low of $28. A breakdown below this level could intensify further downward pressure. Key factors to monitor include macroeconomic indicators (interest rates, inflation), major token unlock events, and regulatory developments.

Short-term (24-48 hours): Expect minor, range-bound price action, heavily influenced by Bitcoin's movements. Mid-term (1 week): Prices could potentially recover, contingent on sustained inflows into Bitcoin ETFs. However, macroeconomic uncertainties and regulatory developments present downside risks. Key catalysts to watch include US inflation data releases, Fed commentary on monetary policy, and new announcements from the AVAX ecosystem.

Currently, the AVAX market exhibits a neutral stance based on both technical and fundamental analysis. While ETF inflows present a positive catalyst, concerns regarding Bitcoin's potential correction and upcoming token unlocks act as significant headwinds. A prudent strategy at this juncture is to adopt a wait-and-see approach. Entry points could be considered on dips within the $28-$30 range, with a stop-loss placed below the $28 support level. The key levels to monitor for the upcoming week are the holding of the $28 support and a decisive breakout above the $36 resistance. A successful breach above $36 could potentially target $40, whereas a failure to sustain the $28 level may signal further downside pressure. Effective risk management necessitates careful attention to market volatility and appropriate position sizing. Looking at the long term, the outlook remains bullish, supported by anticipated institutional investor inflows and continued technological advancements within the ecosystem. Maintaining a rational perspective and adhering to disciplined trading practices will be crucial for capitalizing on emerging opportunities.