The UK FCA's proposed regulations could bring much-needed clarity to the cryptocurrency industry, while its integration with Artificial Intelligence (AI) is a key factor enhancing AVAX's future potential. Although greater institutional adoption is anticipated, risks include intensifying competition from rivals such as Solana and ongoing regulatory uncertainty. Overall, the outlook is neutral to slightly bullish, with attention focused on short-term stability and medium-to-long-term growth potential.

・The UK's Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) has published proposed regulations for cryptocurrency firms, considering exemptions from certain traditional finance (TradFi) rules. This move could foster regulatory clarity and promote healthy industry growth. For altcoins like AVAX, it may enable operations within a more stable regulatory environment, potentially lowering barriers for institutional investors. However, the scope and specifics of these exemptions will significantly influence the future impact on the AVAX ecosystem. ・The fact that fintech firms such as Robinhood and Stripe are building their own Layer 2 blockchains suggests increasing adoption of blockchain technology by institutional investors. This could present new use case and partnership opportunities for platforms like AVAX. However, scalability and interoperability issues within existing blockchain infrastructure are identified as potential bottlenecks hindering full institutional participation, making it crucial whether AVAX can overcome these challenges. ・The Ethereum unstaking queue reaching record highs, with a waiting period of 44 days, suggests market participants may be seeking to lock in profits. While this could exert short-term downward pressure on ETH's price, the concurrent increase in strategic reserves, such as ETF holdings, might mitigate large-scale selling pressure. Although AVAX operates in a different ecosystem, ETH's movements significantly influence overall market sentiment, warranting attention. Furthermore, the surge in ETH unstaking could potentially catalyze capital migration to other Layer 1 chains. ・Forward Industries' plan to raise up to $4 billion through stock sales to expand its investment in the Solana ecosystem highlights growing institutional interest in specific blockchain ecosystems. Solana's prominence could intensify competition for platforms like AVAX in attracting developers and investors. The key to AVAX's future growth will lie in its ability to offer distinct advantages and differentiators compared to Solana. ・Bitcoin surpassing $117,000, with traders factoring in potential Federal Reserve rate cuts, indicates rising risk-on sentiment across the market. Fed rate cuts are generally viewed as a positive factor for the cryptocurrency market, as a lower interest rate environment can encourage investment in higher-risk assets, potentially benefiting altcoins like AVAX. However, the Fed's policy decisions and the subsequent market reactions could also introduce short-term volatility. ・The news of a Bitcoin whale, dormant for 12 years, moving 1,000 BTC just before a Federal Reserve policy meeting has captured market participants' attention. This activity could signal increased market participation by large holders and potential expectations regarding future price movements. Whale movements can impact market liquidity and the price discovery process, potentially exerting an indirect influence on altcoins like AVAX. ・Coinbase's request to the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) for federal intervention to prevent state-level enforcement actions against crypto assets signals regulatory uncertainty within the United States. Such regulatory fragmentation poses a risk factor for projects like AVAX in terms of business development and compliance. A clear and consistent regulatory framework is essential for fostering institutional confidence and promoting the growth of the AVAX ecosystem. ・Google's announcement of an open-source protocol for stablecoin-compatible, AI-driven payments signifies the rapid convergence of AI and blockchain technology. This could stimulate the development of AI-related applications and services within the AVAX ecosystem. Integration with stablecoins promises to enhance payment efficiency and global accessibility within an AI-driven economy. How AVAX addresses this trend and deepens its utility in the AI sector remains a key point of interest. ・The fact that GD Culture's stock price dropped 28% despite announcing a deal to acquire 7,500 BTC illustrates that acquiring crypto assets does not automatically lead to a stock price increase. Conversely, depending on the acquisition method, financial conditions, and market sentiment, it can even have a negative impact. For altcoins like AVAX, such instances underscore the importance of long-term value creation and clear revenue models, highlighting the necessity of contributing to the real economy. ・Bitcoin mining stocks outperforming BTC, driven by investment prospects in Artificial Intelligence (AI), suggests that AI technology is increasingly influencing the broader cryptocurrency market. AVAX, with its scalability and low transaction fees, holds the potential to serve as a foundation for AI-related applications and decentralized AI platforms. Growth in the AI sector could act as a potent catalyst for expanding AVAX's use cases and attracting new investor demographics. ・Overall, developments in the U.S. regulatory landscape (AI payment protocols, ETF holdings), regulatory tightening in Europe (EU AMLR), and institutional adoption trends (fintech firms entering the blockchain space, Forward Industries' investment in Solana) have complex implications for the altcoin market, including AVAX. While expectations of Fed rate cuts and whale movements are short-term price drivers, the convergence with AI could enhance AVAX's long-term growth potential. Regulatory clarity and adaptation to technological innovation will be key determinants of AVAX's future.

Potential downside risks for AVAX include US regulatory uncertainty (related to the Coinbase situation), intensifying competition from rival blockchains such as Solana, and risks associated with a Bitcoin correction. The key support level is the recent low of $26; breaking below this could open the possibility of a drop to the psychological level of $20. Constant vigilance is required regarding regulatory developments and sudden shifts in market sentiment.

Short-term (24-48 hours): Minor fluctuations within the current range are expected, driven by major news and market sentiment. Medium-term (1 week): A breakout is possible with regulatory clarity or positive AI-related news. Otherwise, a range-bound market is likely to continue. Key catalysts include FCA developments and AVAX use cases in the AI sector.

While AVAX is currently trading sideways in a neutral market environment, we view its potential for growth as considerable. Positive fundamentals, such as the UK FCA's proposed regulations and Google's AI payment protocol announcement, lay the groundwork for enhanced long-term credibility and the creation of new use cases. As an investment strategy, we recommend buying the dip in the $26-$28 range. Holding the crucial support at $26 is key; consolidation above this level could pave the way for a move towards the next resistance at $35, and potentially towards $40-$45. Exercise caution regarding short-term volatility and limit risk exposure by placing stop-losses below $25. This week, closely monitoring US regulatory developments and Bitcoin's price action is crucial for gauging overall market sentiment. Advancements in AI and their integration within the AVAX ecosystem are expected to be significant future growth drivers.