Long-term catalysts for AVAX include U.S. regulators reviewing year-round capital markets and derivatives regulation, Tether's move into spot asset investments, and expanding institutional adoption by major players like ARK Invest and Itaú Asset. Conversely, outflows from Ethereum ETFs and heightened sensitivity to macroeconomic shifts indicate potential near-term volatility. The overall outlook maintains a neutral bias, reflecting a blend of increasing market maturity and persistent volatility.

・Initiation of Review for 24/7 Capital Markets and Crypto Derivatives Regulation in the US The joint review by the SEC and CFTC into the transition towards 24/7 capital markets and the regulation of cryptocurrency derivatives could potentially foster market maturation and encourage institutional investor participation. This is expected to enhance liquidity within the crypto market and establish a more stable trading environment, thereby increasing the investment attractiveness of altcoins like AVAX. Regulatory clarity is likely to stimulate long-term capital inflows, contributing to AVAX's price stabilization and growth. ・Continued Weekly Outflows from Ethereum ETFs Signal Short-Term Investor Caution The consecutive four-day period of outflows recorded by US spot Ethereum ETFs suggests a cooling of short-term investor sentiment. This could impact overall market sentiment and potentially exert selling pressure on altcoins such as AVAX. However, considering the substantial inflows into Ethereum ETFs observed in August, these outflows might represent a temporary correction. Depending on macroeconomic trends, a reversal back to inflows is possible, potentially limiting the impact on AVAX. ・Tether Considers Investment in Gold Supply Chain Tether's consideration of investing in the gold supply chain is noteworthy as a move by a stablecoin issuer to strengthen its diversified investments in real-world assets. This indicates a deepening integration between the cryptocurrency market and traditional financial markets, which could indirectly benefit altcoins like AVAX. Tether's portfolio expansion may serve to enhance overall market credibility and potentially attract a broader range of investors. ・ARK Invest Expands Stock Purchases in BitMine and Bullish ARK Invest, led by Cathie Wood, has significantly increased its stake in Bitmine Immersion Technologies and the crypto exchange Bullish. This signals strong investment appetite from institutional players towards companies linked to the cryptocurrency sector. This can be interpreted as heightened interest in investing in altcoin ecosystems like AVAX, potentially serving as a positive factor supporting its long-term price appreciation. Investments in technological innovation and infrastructure development are likely to drive AVAX adoption and associated value enhancement. ・Bitcoin Price Surge to $113,400 Negated Following Weak US Jobs Data Bitcoin's sharp decline after a temporary surge linked to weaker-than-expected US employment statistics highlights the market's sensitivity to macroeconomic indicators. This volatility could spill over to AVAX, causing short-term price fluctuations. However, Bitcoin's price movements do not necessarily reflect AVAX's fundamentals. AVAX possesses the potential to exhibit different price dynamics driven by its unique technology and ecosystem expansion. ・Trump-Related WLFI Token Plummets 40%, Draws Claims of 'Worst Scam Ever' The significant drop in the Trump-related WLFI token, accompanied by accusations of being a scam, underscores the critical importance of risk management within the cryptocurrency market. Such negative news could potentially dampen overall market sentiment, encouraging a cautious approach towards investments in altcoins like AVAX. However, unlike WLFI, AVAX benefits from substantial technological development and community support, suggesting the direct impact may be limited. ・Brazil's Major Asset Manager Itaú Asset Establishes Dedicated Cryptocurrency Division The establishment of a dedicated cryptocurrency division by Itaú Asset Management, Brazil's largest asset management firm, signifies the growth of the crypto market and increasing institutional interest in South America. This could serve as a tailwind for AVAX's adoption expansion in emerging markets, including Brazil. Initiatives by leading regional financial institutions into cryptocurrency are expected to contribute to AVAX's adoption and credibility, creating new investment opportunities. [Overall Summary] Regulatory reviews of 24/7 markets and derivatives oversight in the US, along with Tether's exploration of real-world asset investments, suggest potential for crypto market maturation and increased institutional participation, which could contribute to AVAX's long-term growth. Conversely, outflows from Ethereum ETFs and the market's heightened sensitivity to macroeconomic data indicate short-term price volatility risks. However, ARK Invest's increased investments in related companies and the establishment of a crypto division by a major Brazilian asset manager signal growing expectations for the AVAX ecosystem and potential regional adoption. Overall, the market appears to be moving in a positive direction.

Heightened sensitivity to macroeconomic factors, driven by weak US employment data, and outflows from Ethereum (ETH) ETFs pose a risk of short-term price depreciation. Reports of fraud concerning the WLFI token could negatively impact market sentiment. The recent low of $23 serves as a key support level; a breach below this threshold may trigger a further decline to $20. Close attention should be paid to regulatory developments and sudden shifts in market psychology.

In the short term (24-48 hours), the price is expected to trade within the $23-$25 range. Over the medium term (1 week), potential upside hinges on improvements in macroeconomic indicators and the resumption of inflows into ETH ETFs. Otherwise, pressure is likely to mount towards the lower end of the range. Key catalysts to watch include progress on regulatory clarity in the US and specific development announcements within the AVAX ecosystem.

The AVAX market presents a mixed outlook, balancing long-term positive drivers such as the consideration of enhanced US regulations and Tether's investment in physical assets, with short-term volatility factors including outflows from ETH ETFs and sensitivity to macroeconomic conditions. Consequently, a neutral to slightly bullish stance is appropriate. The activities of ARK Invest and major Brazilian asset manager Itaú Asset indicate growing institutional interest in the AVAX ecosystem and its potential for regional adoption, serving as strong fundamental factors supporting AVAX's future prospects. While short-term price volatility risks persist, the $23 level acts as a key support. Accumulating positions around this price range presents an attractive strategy. Alternatively, consider entering long positions upon a decisive break above the $25 resistance to capitalize on upward momentum. Initial profit targets are set at $25, followed by $30. Crucially, risk management requires implementing a stop-loss below $23 to limit potential losses. This week, closely monitor the $23-$25 range, adjusting strategy based on the direction of the breakout. Continuous monitoring of regulatory developments, macroeconomic indicators, and AVAX ecosystem progress is vital. By staying informed and making rational decisions based on these factors, investors can capture AVAX's growth potential. As the market matures, AVAX is well-positioned for further value appreciation.