Positive market sentiment is being shaped by inflows into Ethereum spot ETFs, bullish signals in the derivatives market, and Bitcoin's successful breach of a key resistance level. Furthermore, record open interest on Solana and advancements in Real World Assets (RWA) and Artificial Intelligence (AI) are capturing attention, potentially boosting interest in Layer 1 ecosystems, including AVAX. However, given the bearish crossover indicated by AVAX's MACD and potential short-term volatility, the overall market bias is assessed as Neutral.

Fundamental Analysis On September 4, 2025, the cryptocurrency market was marked by a variety of significant news. Particular attention should be paid to the following developments potentially impacting the price action of major cryptocurrencies like Ethereum (ETH), Bitcoin (BTC), and Solana (SOL). * Ethereum (ETH) Spot ETF Inflows and Bullish Derivatives Signals Despite a $300 million outflow from US Ethereum spot ETFs, derivatives market positions and long/short ratios remain bullish, with support noted at the $4,300 level. Furthermore, ETH exchange reserves have reached a three-year low, indicating that increased demand from ETFs and corporate treasuries is absorbing supply. This highlights a potential ETH supply crunch, potentially increasing upward price pressure. If institutional buying of ETH continues, the medium-to-long-term upward trend is expected to be maintained, even with potential short-term price adjustments. AVAX, owing to its interoperability with the Ethereum ecosystem and its competitiveness as a Layer 1 blockchain, is likely to be significantly influenced by ETH's movements. Positive sentiment surrounding ETH could potentially drive inflows into AVAX. * Bitcoin (BTC) Breaks Key Resistance, Sustaining Bull Market Bitcoin has surpassed $112,000, maintaining its bull market. While some analyses, based on the four-year cycle theory, suggest a potential downturn into a bear market reaching $50,000 by October, others maintain that BTC is currently holding a 'bull market support channel' within its current price range. The expansion of options trading for Bitcoin ETFs is also expected to facilitate greater institutional participation, contributing to price stabilization and improved liquidity. Bitcoin's robust price action serves to boost overall market sentiment, acting as a catalyst for capital inflows into altcoins. As AVAX is also strongly influenced by Bitcoin's performance, BTC's bullish trend provides a tailwind for AVAX as well. * Solana (SOL) Targets $1,000 Amid Record Open Interest Solana has shown potential to reach $1,000 if it breaks through the resistance between $210 and $250, and its open interest has reached an all-time high of $13 billion, indicating a surge in speculative interest. The expansion of the Solana ecosystem, coupled with increased network activity, is bolstering SOL's price appreciation. Similar to Solana, AVAX is a Layer 1 blockchain characterized by fast and low-cost transactions, and there is competition between the two for ecosystem development and user acquisition. SOL's strong performance could elevate overall interest in Layer 1 blockchains, potentially having a positive spillover effect on AVAX. * Focus on Real-World Asset (RWA) Tokenization and Institutional Entry The tokenization of RWAs is emerging as a new 'trust layer' for institutional investors, signaling potential capital inflows into sustainable market opportunities. The US Federal Reserve (FRB) is also planning a conference on payment innovation and tokenization, highlighting the growing interest in this sector. RWA tokenization holds the potential to enhance the practical utility of blockchain technology and create new asset classes. Progress in this area could accelerate the growth of the entire blockchain industry, potentially fostering the development of diverse applications on Layer 1 platforms like AVAX. * AI Integration and Evolution in the Crypto Space Coinbase's CEO has stated an aim to generate 50% of the platform's code using AI, suggesting the increasing integration of AI within the cryptocurrency sector. AI has the potential for application across various domains, including optimizing trading strategies, enhancing security, and improving user experience. Articles discussing the use of AI tools like Gemini further indicate AI's potential to streamline trading and improve the accuracy of information gathering. Advancements in AI technology are expected to boost development efficiency within blockchain ecosystems, accelerating the creation of new services and products. This could translate into AI-driven efficiency gains and innovative product development within the AVAX ecosystem as well. Conclusion The bullish market sentiment surrounding Ethereum and Bitcoin, Solana's remarkable growth, and the focus on RWA tokenization are collectively driving the broader cryptocurrency market. The increasing adoption of AI technology also promises enhanced development efficiency and sophisticated trading capabilities. These factors are likely to positively impact Layer 1 blockchains like AVAX, fostering ecosystem development and user growth. The market is expected to remain dynamic, influenced by multiple factors including regulatory developments, macroeconomic trends, and technological innovation.

A bearish MACD crossover is a key factor indicating the risk of a short-term price decline. A breakdown below the recent low of $23 could trigger further declines and warrants caution. Sudden shifts in sentiment for ETH and BTC, overall market risk-off sentiment, and regulatory developments are also potential risk factors impacting the AVAX price.

The next 24-48 hours are expected to be somewhat choppy, against the backdrop of bearish MACD signals. Should the strength of ETH and BTC be maintained, AVAX will likely continue to trade within the $23-$25 range. On a weekly basis, a successful break above the $25 resistance level could unlock further upside potential, but failure to hold this level warrants caution.

Overall, AVAX is positioned within a favorable external environment from a fundamental perspective, driven by the broader market's bullish sentiment towards ETH and BTC, the growth of competing Layer 1 blockchains like Solana, and the increasing anticipation surrounding innovative sectors such as Real-World Assets (RWA) and Artificial Intelligence (AI). These factors hold the potential to bolster the long-term development of the AVAX ecosystem. However, technically, short-term uncertainty remains, as indicated by a bearish MACD cross. We assess the current market bias as 'neutral'; however, underpinned by positive fundamentals, potential downturns can be viewed as accumulation opportunities. Specifically, a prudent strategy involves either waiting for a decisive breakout above the $25 resistance level or awaiting a pullback towards the support zone around $23. Should the price break above $25, consider taking profits incrementally between $27 and $30, utilizing a trailing stop to lock in gains. Conversely, should the $23 support level break, it is strongly advised to cut losses below $22 and reduce exposure to mitigate further downside risk. This week, attention should primarily be on the defense of the $23 support and the attempt to break the $25 resistance, while continuously monitoring overall market sentiment and the movements of BTC/ETH. Practicing rigorous risk management and maintaining level-headed decision-making will be key to pursuing consistent returns within this highly volatile market. The influence of emerging trends like AI and RWA on the blockchain sector is substantial, and AVAX possesses significant potential to benefit from this evolving landscape.