Increased use of stablecoins by AI agents, growth in DeFi lending, and the resumption of custody services by institutional investors are providing tailwinds for the AVAX ecosystem. Bitcoin breaking its seasonal downturn trend and heightened interest in XRP are also bolstering market sentiment. However, the fine imposed on OKX underscores the critical importance of regulatory compliance. Technically, the RSI remains in neutral territory, and the MACD provides no clear signal. Overall, while market sentiment appears neutral, the underlying fundamentals exhibit several positive factors.

・Increased Stablecoin Usage by AI Agents The prediction that AI agents will become primary users of stablecoins in the future suggests an expansion of stablecoin use cases. As AI autonomously handles day-to-day transactions, it could accelerate stablecoin adoption, enhancing their value and utility. This may boost stablecoin transactions on smart contract platforms like AVAX, potentially leading to increased network utilization. ・Significant Growth in DeFi Lending Protocols According to Binance Research, the 72% surge in DeFi lending protocols observed since the start of 2025 indicates growing adoption of stablecoins and tokenized assets by institutional investors. As a smart contract platform, AVAX serves as a crucial infrastructure for these DeFi protocols. An increase in Total Value Locked (TVL) suggests greater capital inflow and heightened development activity within the AVAX ecosystem, potentially driving AVAX's price upward. ・US Bancorp Resumes Cryptocurrency Custody Services The resumption of digital asset custody services for institutional investors by US Bancorp signifies deepening involvement from traditional financial institutions in the cryptocurrency market. This allows institutional investors to manage their crypto assets more securely and easily, thereby enhancing market confidence. An increase in tokenized assets and institutionally-managed assets on platforms like AVAX could further promote the adoption and utilization of AVAX. ・Integration of Tokenized Stocks and ETFs into Trust Wallet The integration of tokenized stocks and ETFs into Trust Wallet indicates progress in the tokenization of Real-World Assets (RWAs) at the wallet level. This represents a significant step in bridging blockchain technology with traditional financial markets. Advancements in RWA tokenization on the AVAX platform could create new investment opportunities, potentially expanding AVAX's use cases. ・Breaking Bitcoin's "Red September" Trend The suggestion that Bitcoin might break its historical downward trend in September could lead to an improvement in overall market sentiment. Bitcoin's price movements often act as a leading indicator for the broader market, and a positive trend could have a spillover effect on other altcoins, particularly projects like AVAX. Overcoming the typical seasonal September decline would demonstrate increased market maturity and resilience. ・XRP Price Target of $5 and Potential ETF Approval The potential for XRP to reach a $5 price target and the increased probability of spot ETF approvals suggest growing institutional interest in specific altcoins. This can be seen as a sign that the broader market is exploring investment opportunities in altcoins. Similarly, AVAX could potentially see similar price appreciation if future ETF approvals and institutional adoption materialize. ・OKX Fined for Operating Without a License in the Netherlands The fine imposed on OKX in the Netherlands highlights the strict stance taken by regulatory authorities towards cryptocurrency exchanges. This serves as a reminder for platforms like AVAX regarding the importance of complying with regulations in various jurisdictions. Cooperation with regulators is essential for the healthy long-term growth of the market and is a crucial factor for AVAX's global expansion. ・Large Ether Holdings for Crypto Monetization The acquisition of $44 million worth of Ether by Yunfeng Financial Group indicates that institutional investors are strategically accumulating ETH, deepening their investment in Web3. Strong demand for Ether enhances the credibility of smart contract platforms overall. AVAX could also see its fundamental value strengthened if similar long-term accumulation strategies become more widespread. ・Approval of Solana's Alpenglow Upgrade The approval of Solana's Alpenglow upgrade via a governance vote demonstrates technological innovation aimed at improving scalability and transaction finality. By pursuing similar technological advancements to achieve faster and more efficient transaction processing, AVAX can enhance its competitiveness and become a more attractive platform for developers and users. [Overall Summary] The increasing use of stablecoins by AI agents, the growth in DeFi lending, and the resumption of crypto custody services by institutional investors all suggest expanding overall market adoption and greater institutional participation, providing a tailwind for the AVAX ecosystem. Conversely, fines levied by regulators on exchanges reaffirm the critical importance of compliance and encourage market maturation. These factors highlight the need to closely monitor AVAX's technological innovations and the evolving regulatory landscape surrounding it.

Heightened regulatory scrutiny, as evidenced by the fine imposed on OKX, is a risk factor for the broader market, including AVAX. Macroeconomic uncertainties and pressure from competing platforms also add to the concerns. A break below the key support level of $23 increases the risk of further downside. Sudden shifts in market sentiment and technical delays are also factors requiring attention.

In the short term, the current range-bound market is likely to continue. With the RSI neutral and the MACD lacking decisive signals, a catalyst will be needed for the next significant price movement. In the medium term, increased institutional adoption and progress in RWA (Real-World Asset) tokenization could potentially boost AVAX's price. In particular, major DeFi protocol integrations within the AVAX ecosystem or positive regulatory news could serve as catalysts.

AVAX is underpinned by strong fundamentals, including the increasing utilization of stablecoins by AI agents, growth in DeFi lending, and the resumption of custody services by institutional investors, suggesting potential for ecosystem expansion and increased institutional adoption. Advancements in Real-World Asset (RWA) tokenization also serve as a positive catalyst, broadening AVAX's use cases. Technically, the RSI is in neutral territory, the MACD lacks clear signals, and the price is currently consolidating within a range around the $25 mark. If the $23 support level holds, coupled with an improvement in overall market sentiment, a potential move towards $28 and possibly $30 becomes feasible. As for investment strategy, buying on dips towards the $23 area or entering on a confirmed breakout above the $25 resistance level is recommended. Short-term profit targets are set at $28, with mid-term targets aiming for the $30-$32 range. Crucially, stop-losses should be placed below the $22 support or at appropriate levels corresponding to the entry point. Key focus points for the upcoming week include breaking the $25 resistance and maintaining support at $23. Continued attention should be paid to regulatory news, such as the fine imposed on OKX, underscoring the critical importance of compliance. Rigorous risk management and a focus on AVAX's long-term growth potential are essential for navigating this volatile market. With its innovative technology and expanding ecosystem, AVAX holds significant potential to play a pivotal role in the future digital economy. Let's seize this opportunity through a strategic approach, remaining unfazed by market fluctuations.