Today's market is experiencing short-term weakness driven by geopolitical risks related to President Trump's tariff announcement and a large-scale liquidation event. However, continuous inflows into ETFs by institutional investors and the expanding involvement of traditional financial institutions suggest long-term growth potential. While AI-related investments show future promise, they also carry bubble risks. Overall, despite prevailing short-term bearish pressures, mid-to-long-term positive factors are also present, establishing a market bias of 'Neutral (leaning bearish)'.

Potential Expansion of Bitcoin ETF Options Trading in the US Indications of regulatory easing by the SEC may further facilitate institutional entry into the Bitcoin market. An expansion in options trading could diversify hedging strategies and enhance liquidity, potentially contributing to price stabilization. This, in turn, might attract capital inflows from a wider range of investors, potentially underpinning a mid-to-long-term upward trend in Bitcoin's price. Massive Crypto Liquidation Event ($20 Billion) A record $20 billion in cryptocurrency liquidations occurred in the last 24 hours, indicating excessive leverage and high market volatility. The call by Crypto.com's CEO for regulatory scrutiny of exchanges raises concerns regarding market health. This event may lead to short-term downward price pressure and negatively impact investor sentiment, with a particular risk of further selling pressure stemming from leveraged traders. Trump Administration's Announcement of 100% Tariffs on China The announcement could escalate geopolitical risks and foster global risk-off sentiment. The crypto market, mirroring traditional asset markets, is anticipated to be impacted by this macroeconomic uncertainty. Bitcoin experienced a sharp decline in response to this news, and downside pressure is likely to continue in the immediate future. Investors may strengthen their risk-averse behavior. Galaxy Digital's $460 Million Investment in AI Data Centers Galaxy Digital's strategic move to repurpose Bitcoin mining facilities into AI data centers indicates a shift in investment priorities within the cryptocurrency industry towards emerging growth sectors. Investing in AI represents a diversification of future revenue streams and has the potential to increase the company's valuation. This initiative points towards a future trend of synergy between AI and blockchain technologies, possibly encouraging investment in associated firms. Institutional Investors Expected to Increase Digital Asset Allocation to 16% by 2028 A report by State Street highlights the growing involvement of institutional investors in digital assets. Notably, the projection to raise digital asset allocation within portfolios from approximately 7% currently to 16% by 2028 signals market maturation and increasing mainstream adoption. This outlook supports the expectation of sustained long-term capital inflows into cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin, potentially boosting prices. Substantial Inflows into Bitcoin ETFs Reach $2.71 Billion Weekly Persistent large-scale inflows into Bitcoin ETFs, reflecting sustained momentum from "Uptober," signal robust institutional demand. This trend validates Bitcoin's strengthening position as "digital gold." Such stable capital flow is expected to mitigate price volatility and help maintain a steady upward trajectory. Crypto Market Sentiment Turns to "Fear" The drop in cryptocurrency market sentiment to the "Fear" level, triggered by the announcement of tariffs by President Trump, underscores the vulnerability of market psychology. This could accelerate short-term price depreciation. Investors may heighten their risk-averse behavior and contemplate pulling capital from the market. Morgan Stanley Broadens Access to Crypto Funds Morgan Stanley's initiative to provide broader client access to cryptocurrency funds signifies the deepening engagement of traditional financial institutions with the digital asset market. This is anticipated to attract new capital inflows, potentially boosting the overall visibility and trustworthiness of the crypto space. In particular, extending access to retail investors is likely to enhance market liquidity and diversity. SEC Pursues 'Forward-Looking' Regulatory Framework The SEC's new leadership aiming to establish a regulatory framework independent of political shifts is crucial for the cryptocurrency industry's long-term development. This initiative has the potential to reduce regulatory uncertainty, creating a more stable environment for businesses to operate. Ultimately, this is expected to foster innovation and contribute to the healthy growth of the market. AI and Bitcoin Correlation Strengthens Amidst 80% Decline Warning The heightened correlation observed between Bitcoin and Nvidia stock suggests that the AI boom might be impacting Bitcoin's price dynamics. An 80% potential decline scenario, cautioned by some analysts, points to the risk of an AI bubble burst spilling over into the Bitcoin market. This situation reflects concerns about market overheating and potential over-reliance on the AI sector. Overall Summary Today's news has significantly impacted the cryptocurrency market. Increased geopolitical risks stemming from President Trump's tariff announcement, coupled with a large-scale liquidation event, have exerted short-term downward price pressure and shifted market sentiment towards "Fear." On the other hand, sustained inflows into Bitcoin ETFs from institutional investors, broadened access through Morgan Stanley, and major investments in the AI sector point towards the market's long-term growth potential and anticipation of technological innovation. In summary, the market environment remains complex, characterized by the coexistence of short-term volatility and long-term growth opportunities.

The primary risk stems from geopolitical tensions arising from President Trump's tariff announcements and the subsequent spillover of risk-off sentiment. Excessive leverage and high volatility, potentially exacerbated by a massive $20 billion liquidation event, could fuel further downward pressure. Spillover effects from a potential AI bubble burst are also a concern, warranting caution. A deterioration in market sentiment could accelerate declines, potentially leading to a search for the next support level.

Short-term (24-48 hours): Downward pressure may persist due to the impact of geopolitical risks and liquidation events. Medium-term (1 week): A rebound within the current range or modest gains are expected, provided that market sentiment stabilizes and inflows into ETFs continue. However, further declines are possible should risk factors deteriorate. Key catalysts to monitor include monetary policy announcements from major economies, statements from regulators, and geopolitical developments.

The ARB market is currently dominated by short-term bearish pressure, driven by geopolitical risks and large-scale liquidation events, with sentiment characterized by "Fear." However, institutional ETF inflows and the expanding participation of traditional financial institutions signal medium-to-long-term growth potential. Technically, the RSI is in oversold territory, but reversal signals are unclear. The market bias is assessed as Neutral (leaning bearish). Investors should wait for stabilization. Aggressive entries should be avoided; consider accumulating smaller positions after risk-off sentiment retreats and a bounce off support is confirmed. Implement strict stop-losses, making risk management the top priority. This week, focus on geopolitical developments and institutional activity.