Market sentiment is driven by demand for Bitcoin as a safe-haven asset amid concerns of a potential US government shutdown, alongside the ongoing digitization of alternative assets, deeper integration with traditional finance, and anticipation surrounding 'Pumptober'. Key risk factors include high volumes of stablecoin bot trading, legal complications related to Tornado Cash, and the BNB Chain hack. Nevertheless, the market is generally viewed as neutral, underpinned by medium-to-long term bullish catalysts.

・Potential US Government Shutdown Signals Potential Bottom in Crypto Market The possibility of a US government shutdown is accelerating the investor trend towards safe-haven assets, serving as a driving force behind the rise of Bitcoin and gold. Stemming from the failure to pass crucial fiscal bills, a shutdown heightens macroeconomic uncertainty. In such circumstances, Bitcoin strengthens its role as a safe-haven asset, potentially leading to price stabilization or appreciation. ・Over 70% of Stablecoin Transactions Identified as Bot-Driven While Q3 saw stablecoin trading volume reach an all-time high, the fact that a significant portion was driven by automated trading bots suggests a divergence between genuine market demand and speculative activity. Bot-driven trading has the potential to amplify market volatility. However, substantial bot activity also indicates a significant inflow of capital through stablecoins, potentially contributing to the overall increase in trading volume. ・Shifting Concept of Alternative Assets: Digitization and Democratization of Ownership via Blockchain The digitization of alternative assets such as wine, art, and watches through blockchain technology, enabling fractional ownership, has made these assets accessible to a wider investor base. This trend has the potential to drive new investment inflows not only into the cryptocurrency market but also into traditional financial markets. The increasing interest in alternative assets is expected to contribute to enhanced liquidity across the crypto market as a whole. ・Tornado Cash Co-founder Seeks to Overturn Conviction The news that Roman Storm, co-founder of Tornado Cash, is seeking to overturn his conviction highlights the complex relationship between crypto anonymity and legal regulations. The outcome of his appeal could significantly impact the future legal framework for privacy-enhancing technologies like mixer services. A successful appeal might ease regulatory pressure on similar platforms, whereas upholding the conviction could lead to stricter enforcement. ・Machi Big Brother Sees Massive Unrealized Gains Turn into Losses The fact that Machi Big Brother, a well-known crypto investor, experienced a sharp decline from substantial unrealized gains to actual losses on his Hyperliquid account underscores the risks associated with high-leverage trading and the inherent volatility of DeFi platforms. This situation serves as a stark reminder of the risks involved for retail investors and provides a valuable case study for monitoring the actions of market participants. ・Bitcoin Price Prediction for October: Targeting $127,000 - $137,000 Based on on-chain data and historical patterns, Bitcoin shows potential for significant upward price movement in October. Notably, the price increase observed in September is being analyzed as a precursor to 'Pumptober' (a surge in October). Breaking key resistance levels could trigger further price appreciation, potentially accelerating institutional investor inflows. ・BNB Chain Official X Account Hacked; CZ Warns of Phishing Scams The compromise of the official BNB Chain X account, resulting in the distribution of phishing links, serves as a critical reminder of security risks within the cryptocurrency ecosystem. Such security breaches can erode user trust and potentially exert short-term downward pressure on the prices of associated tokens. The warning issued by Binance co-founder CZ is crucial for enhancing security awareness within the community. ・Aptos Partners with Trump Family-Linked WLFI to Integrate USD1 Stablecoin Layer 1 blockchain Aptos has partnered with World Liberty Financial (WLFI), a company associated with the Trump family, to integrate the USD1 stablecoin. This collaboration signals an increasing convergence between the cryptocurrency sector and traditional finance, notably involving figures with political influence. The move could foster greater adoption of stablecoins and accelerate their integration into the wider financial system. ・AI Agents Need Crypto to Operate in Financial Markets: Coinbase Executive A Coinbase executive stated that AI agents require cryptocurrencies to operate effectively within financial markets, suggesting a future synergy between artificial intelligence and blockchain technology. As AI seeks to transcend the limitations of traditional financial infrastructure, the efficiency and decentralization offered by crypto could become indispensable. This potential integration may serve as a significant driver for long-term demand in the cryptocurrency space. ・SEC Reportedly Considering Blockchain-Based Securities Trading Reports indicate that the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is exploring plans to permit blockchain-based securities trading, marking a significant step towards the integration of traditional finance and crypto markets. This could facilitate the tokenization of stocks, potentially enabling benefits like 24/7 trading. Such a development would likely attract new capital inflows into the crypto space and spur advancements in related technologies. Overall Summary While macroeconomic and security concerns such as the potential US government shutdown, legal issues surrounding Tornado Cash, and the BNB Chain hack persist, numerous developments paint an optimistic picture for the future. These include significant inflows into Bitcoin ETFs, the digitization of alternative assets, emerging collaborations with AI, and the SEC's consideration of blockchain for stock trading. Although these factors may contribute to increased short-term volatility, they collectively indicate growing institutional engagement and technological innovation within the cryptocurrency market, fostering expectations for sustained medium to long-term growth.

Risk Analysis: Potential downside risks include uncertainty surrounding a potential US government shutdown, volatility amplification driven by stablecoin bots, the eventual outcome of the Tornado Cash lawsuit, and the BNB Chain hacking incident. Key support levels are expected to be situated near the lower boundary of the current trading range. Retail investors must continue to exercise caution regarding the risks associated with highly leveraged trading.

**Outlook:** **Short-term (24-48 hours):** Continued trading within the current range is expected over the next 24-48 hours. This period could be influenced by news flow, particularly developments related to a potential US government shutdown. **Medium-term (1 week):** A shift towards an upward trend may be anticipated if news concerning integration with traditional finance (TradFi) or AI collaborations proves positive. However, the potential materialization of risk factors cannot be disregarded.

The market is currently in a neutral stance, balancing short-term risk factors like concerns over a potential US government shutdown and hacking incidents against medium-to-long-term growth catalysts such as the digitalization of alternative assets, AI integration, and the application of blockchain technology to securities trading. Despite this neutrality, optimism for the future is strengthening. For investors, we recommend an observational approach within the current range. Consider initiating buy positions upon confirmation of a clear breakout above the resistance level, setting stop-loss orders near the immediate support level to limit potential losses. Conversely, if the price breaks below the current range, a temporary retreat may be advisable to prepare for further downside risks. This week, closely monitor developments regarding the government shutdown and announcements from major regulatory authorities, as these events have the potential to act as price catalysts. Identifying strategic entry and exit points based on these factors is crucial. From a risk management perspective, avoiding excessive leverage and maintaining portfolio diversification are essential. By navigating market volatility and focusing on the potential driven by technological innovation, the aim should be to achieve robust long-term growth.