The expansion of Bitcoin ETF options trading in the US is driving institutional adoption, while its repositioning as Layer 1 infrastructure signals enhanced utility. Pilot programs for tokenized deposits are accelerating integration with traditional finance. Supported by these positive fundamentals, and factoring in potential short-term volatility, the market bias is assessed as neutral to slightly bullish.

fundamentalAnalysis * Expansion of Bitcoin ETF Options Trading in the US The SEC's approval of new listing standards could potentially shorten the path to launching crypto ETFs, signaling the emergence of new products like Bitwise's application for a Hyperliquid ETF and BlackRock's Bitcoin Premium Income ETF. These developments may further facilitate institutional investor entry into the crypto market and contribute to Bitcoin price stabilization. The expansion of the options market is expected to enhance liquidity and curb volatility, potentially attracting new capital inflows and supporting medium- to long-term price appreciation. * Redefining Layer 1 Blockchains as Infrastructure The cryptocurrency industry in 2025 is shifting from speculation towards utility, with Layer 1 blockchains being redefined not merely as experiments, but as infrastructure supporting real-world adoption. As executives from the Algorand Foundation have noted, Layer 1 remains the industry's backbone. This trend aligns with developments such as the formation of stablecoin frameworks, the mainstream market entry of tokenized assets, and the initiation of AI-driven on-chain transactions. Consequently, trust in the underlying blockchain technology is bolstered, promoting the growth of the entire ecosystem. * AI Bias Correction through Decentralized Communities Accompanying the rapid evolution of AI, an ideological conflict is emerging regarding the control over AI training, usage, and the policies governing our lives: Should this be dominated by governments and corporations, or should new governance models prioritizing transparency, regeneration, and public interest be pursued? Network States—digital communities leveraging blockchain to form borderless societies—offer a promising solution. This highlights the increasing importance of decentralized governance for the ethical development and deployment of AI. * Pilot Project Launched for Tokenized Pound Deposits UK Finance, in collaboration with six major banks including Barclays, HSBC, and Lloyds Banking Group, has initiated a joint pilot project for tokenized Sterling deposits (GBTD). This initiative aims to provide a digital representation of traditional pound commercial bank money, marking a further advancement in the digitalization of financial services and the utilization of blockchain technology. It has the potential to strengthen the foundation for the future adoption of Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) and other digital assets. * AI Monitoring and Dual Wallet Management Needed Against North Korean Hackers Security experts are urging cryptocurrency firms to enhance defenses, citing intelligence that North Korean hackers are allegedly orchestrating large-scale fraud schemes by posing as job applicants at major Web3 companies. Incidents like the Coinbase data leak illustrate the potential for exposure of wallet balances and physical locations. AI-powered monitoring emerges as a critical tool to counter these sophisticated cyberattacks, underscoring the necessity for heightened security across the entire crypto ecosystem. * Solana ETF Approval Expectations and Price Volatility Although Solana briefly traded below $200, a decision regarding its spot ETF, potentially around October 10th, could represent a "turning point for institutional investors," potentially leading to new all-time highs. ETF approval is expected to drive further institutional inflows, significantly contributing to SOL's price appreciation. However, uncertainties surrounding the approval and overall market sentiment remain key factors influencing short-term price fluctuations. * Ethereum's Rare "Oversold" Signal and Potential Short-Term Rebound Ethereum's Relative Strength Index (RSI) has hit multi-month lows, indicating a rare "oversold" condition. This metric has historically correlated with significant price rallies for ETH, suggesting the potential for a short-term price reversal. Traders are focused on whether the $3,800-$3,900 range can hold as support; maintaining this level could avert further losses and pave the way for a near-term recovery. * Bitcoin's "Fear" Index and Potential "Inflection Point" Bitcoin's "Fear & Greed Index" has fallen back to levels seen when BTC was trading around $83,000, indicating a deterioration in market sentiment. Some analyses suggest that a potential "inflection point" for BTC's price may have already arrived, with social media user behavior also hinting at a possible price rebound. However, macroeconomic uncertainties and Federal Reserve monetary policy remain significant factors influencing Bitcoin's price. Overall Summary This week, the cryptocurrency market saw numerous positive developments fostering the entry of institutional and traditional financial players, such as the SEC easing ETF approval standards and UK Finance launching its tokenized deposit pilot project. Conversely, market volatility and security risks persist, highlighted by price declines in Bitcoin and Ethereum and concerns regarding North Korean hackers. The application of AI technology and the increasing significance of Layer 1 blockchains as infrastructure are poised to drive medium- to long-term market growth.

Macroeconomic uncertainties and Fed policy pose risks to the broader market. The heightened risk of cyberattacks by North Korean hackers is a significant threat to Web3 companies. Uncertainty regarding Solana ETF approval is also a factor contributing to short-term price volatility. These external factors could increase downward pressure. Identifying specific support levels is difficult at this time.

Short-term (24-48 hours): Price action is expected to be range-bound, influenced by reactions to ETF-related news and market sentiment, amidst neutral technical indicators. Mid-term (1 week): Potential catalysts such as the Solana ETF decision and investment trends in Layer 1 infrastructure could determine price direction. Developments concerning AI and decentralized governance will also be closely monitored.

Conclusion: The market is currently navigating a confluence of positive ETF-related news, the BTC Fear Index, and neutral technical indicators. While the growth potential of Layer 1s and AI remains significant in the medium to long term, caution is advised regarding short-term volatility. Investors are recommended to maintain a neutral stance and hold cash positions. Entries should be considered after confirming a clear trend reversal, focusing on key support and resistance levels (e.g., $1), and implementing strict stop-loss orders. This week's key areas of focus include Solana ETFs, tokenization, and developments in AI regulation. For risk management, monitor cybersecurity and macroeconomic indicators. Calm judgment and disciplined execution are key to capturing opportunities.