The adoption of cryptocurrency payments by state services in Ohio, USA, coupled with the development of MiCA-compliant stablecoins by major European banks, indicates a potential reduction in entry barriers and enhanced credibility for institutional investors. However, waning inflows into Bitcoin ETFs and large-scale liquidations impacting Ethereum introduce short-term headwinds. Overall, the market exhibits a confluence of factors: medium-to-long-term growth potential stemming from regulatory clarity and technological innovation, juxtaposed against immediate pressures for price correction. We maintain a neutral outlook.

Fundamental Analysis * Ohio Approves Crypto Payments for State Services The move towards cryptocurrency acceptance at the state level enhances institutional confidence in digital assets and raises expectations for further regulatory easing. This could foster broader market capital inflows, potentially contributing to price increases for major currencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum. * Ethereum (ETH) Price Dips Below $4,000 Amid $36.4 Million in Liquidations The liquidation of substantial long positions exerts short-term downward pressure on ETH prices. However, this could also serve to cool overheated market sentiment, facilitating an adjustment towards more sustainable price levels. It may also signal more favorable entry points for institutional investors. * Nine Major European Banks to Develop MiCA-Compliant Euro-Pegged Stablecoin The emergence of regulated stablecoins in Europe enhances reliability and safety for institutional investors. This lowers the barrier for institutions entering the crypto market via stablecoins, contributing to improved overall market liquidity and price stability. * Bitcoin ETF Inflows Slow Down; Bears Eye $90,000 Target The slowdown in institutional demand for Bitcoin ETFs creates short-term selling pressure. However, this can be interpreted as a cooling-off period that curbs market overheating, potentially laying the groundwork for a more sustainable upward trend. A drop to $90,000 might be viewed by some institutional investors as a new buying opportunity. * Decentralized Exchange (DEX) Perpetual Trading Volume Reaches $70 Billion The surge in perpetual trading volume on DEXs indicates market vibrancy and growth in the derivatives sector. This signifies increased trader participation, leading to enhanced liquidity and a more efficient price discovery mechanism. An environment conducive to diverse trading strategies is increasingly available for institutional investors. * M2 Capital Invests $20 Million in Ethena (ENA) Direct investment by institutional players into DeFi protocols boosts the credibility and maturity of the DeFi market. Investments in synthetic dollar protocols like Ethena could strengthen cryptocurrency's role as an inflation hedge, potentially attracting new capital inflows. * X (Formerly Twitter) Account Takeover Attacks Target Crypto Community The rise in security risks poses a concern for institutional investors. Sophisticated attacks like account takeovers can potentially undermine overall market credibility. However, this could also stimulate investment in security measures, potentially fostering a more secure market environment in the long term. * Bitcoin Fails to Reach New All-Time Highs Relative to Gold and Stocks Bitcoin's inability to keep pace with traditional assets raises questions about market maturity and relative appeal. However, this could also be interpreted as part of Bitcoin's ongoing process of establishing itself as a distinct store of value. Institutional investors need to consider correlations with other asset classes when evaluating portfolio allocations. * Circle Considers 'Reversibility' for USDC Transactions While transaction reversibility contrasts with the decentralized nature of cryptocurrencies, it could be an attractive feature for institutional investors concerned with asset protection against fraud or hacks. This might encourage wider adoption but simultaneously raises concerns about centralization. * Australia Drafts Bill to Strengthen Supervision of Crypto Exchanges While increased regulation may heighten short-term market uncertainty, it is crucial for the long-term healthy development and institutional trust in the market. A clear regulatory framework builds a foundation enabling more institutions to participate confidently. * US Senate Banking Committee to Discuss Crypto Taxation Issues Next Week Progress on tax-related discussions is expected to reduce uncertainty within the cryptocurrency market. A clear tax regime allows institutional investors to better understand taxation risks and plan their investments more effectively, acting as a catalyst for sustained long-term capital inflows. * Bitcoin Rises to $113,900; Bullish Divergence Suggests Trend Reversal Bitcoin's price increase, coupled with bullish technical signals like divergence, suggests an improvement in market sentiment and the potential for further upside. Institutional investors may view these indicators as an opportune moment to increase their positions. * Ethereum (ETH) Supply on Exchanges Hits Nine-Year Low The outflow of Ethereum from exchanges indicates accumulation by institutional investors for long-term holding purposes. This enhances ETH's scarcity and exerts upward price pressure. Such institutional accumulation serves as strong evidence of sustainable value appreciation for ETH. Overall Summary The previous day's cryptocurrency market activity was highlighted by regulatory advancements and expanding institutional involvement, exemplified by Ohio's approval of crypto payments for state services and major European banks' development of MiCA-compliant stablecoins. While short-term price fluctuations occurred, such as slowing inflows into Bitcoin ETFs and significant liquidations in Ethereum, the overall trend points towards market maturation driven by regulatory developments and technological innovation, bolstering expectations for medium-to-long-term growth.

Risks include potential contagion from large-scale liquidations on Ethereum and a slowdown in demand for Bitcoin ETFs, which could negatively impact market sentiment. Heightened security risks, such as X account compromises, and the development of stricter regulations in Australia also increase uncertainty. Key support levels are expected to be driven by a recovery in overall market sentiment and positive, ARB-specific fundamentals. Continued monitoring of these risk factors is necessary.

**Outlook:** **Short-term (24-48 hours):** A minor rebound from oversold conditions indicated by technical indicators is anticipated, although volatility is expected to remain high. **Mid-term (1 week):** The direction of the market will likely be determined by key catalysts, including the trend of inflows into Bitcoin ETFs and progress in discussions regarding tax issues at the US Senate Committee on Finance. **Long-term:** Positive regulatory news, such as the development of MiCA-compliant stablecoins in Europe and the approval of cryptocurrency payments in Ohio, could potentially enhance long-term market credibility.

The market yesterday displayed a mixed performance, characterized by positive regulatory developments alongside short-term price consolidation pressures. The approval of cryptocurrency payments in Ohio and the development of MiCA-compliant stablecoins by major European banks have bolstered institutional confidence and raised expectations for long-term market growth. However, the deceleration of inflows into Bitcoin ETFs and large-scale liquidations in Ethereum signal short-term market volatility. While oversold conditions on the RSI and breaking below the lower Bollinger Band suggest potential for a short-term rebound, a clear trend has yet to emerge. Making definitive bullish or bearish assessments at this juncture is premature; a neutral bias is the prudent approach. From an investment strategy perspective, this short-term correction could present an accumulation opportunity for institutional investors in ARB (or related tokens). However, exercising caution by awaiting broader market sentiment recovery and ARB's specific positive fundamental catalysts is the safer strategy. The ideal entry timing would be within the next 24-48 hours, confirmed by signs of a technical rebound and a decisive break above key resistance levels, such as the vicinity of previous highs. Implement stop-loss orders at clearly defined support levels, ideally established through a market sentiment recovery, to maintain strict risk management. Key catalysts this week include the progress of discussions on cryptocurrency taxation within the U.S. Senate Banking Committee and the evolving trend of Bitcoin ETF inflows, both of which are expected to significantly impact price action across the market, including ARB. Vigilance regarding these catalysts is essential for identifying strategic trading opportunities. Furthermore, increasing security risks and trends toward regulatory tightening warrant consistent observation. As institutional investors, our objective remains to manage uncertainty effectively and construct portfolios with a long-term vision.