Expansion of US ETF options, clarification of UK regulations, and anticipation of interest rate cuts are providing tailwinds for the cryptocurrency market. For ARB, key drivers include these macroeconomic factors alongside its distinct growth as a Layer 2 solution. Overall bias: Neutral to slightly bullish.

Based on cryptocurrency news as of September 17, 2025, this analysis examines the potential impact on the ARB price. * Expansion of Bitcoin ETF Options Trading in the US: Regulatory easing by the SEC is expected to encourage institutional investor participation, acting as a stabilizing factor for Bitcoin prices. The expansion of the options market is anticipated to enhance liquidity and potentially curb volatility. This could attract new capital inflows, providing a supportive factor for medium-to-long-term price appreciation. * UK FCA Announces New Crypto Regulation Proposals, Considering Exemptions from Some TradFi Rules: The announcement by the UK's Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) of new proposals setting minimum standards for crypto firms represents a step towards regulatory clarity. The consideration of exemptions from certain Traditional Finance (TradFi) rules may foster industry innovation and growth while maintaining competitiveness. This could contribute to regulatory stability, particularly in the European market, and potentially encourage further institutional adoption. * Ethereum's Unstaking Queue Sees "Parabolic" Increase, Impact on Price Assessed: The record-high level reached by Ethereum's unstaking queue, with wait times now at 44 days, suggests potential short-term selling pressure. However, significant increases in strategic reserves and ETF holdings may offset overall selling pressure on ETH in the market, potentially limiting the impact on its price. * Bitcoin Surges Past $117,000; Traders Cautious Ahead of Potential Fed Rate Cuts: Bitcoin's recent surge to a four-week high above $117,000 signals bullish market sentiment. With the probability of Federal Reserve rate cuts approaching 100%, this could facilitate capital inflows into risk assets, potentially boosting Bitcoin's price. However, caution is advised regarding price fluctuations around the upcoming FOMC meeting. * Bitcoin Stalls at $116,000 Resistance; Bitfinex Analyzes Need for "Clear Recovery": Analysis indicating that Bitcoin is stalling at the $116,000 resistance level suggests short-term overhead pressure. The ability to decisively break through this level is key to sustaining a further upward trend. Market participants are closely watching this resistance level, with a breakout expected to trigger further price increases. * Circle Invests in Hyperliquid, Launches Native USDC, Intensifying Stablecoin Competition: Circle's investment in Hyperliquid and the launch of native USDC signal intensifying competition in the stablecoin sector and expansion into new blockchain ecosystems. This move could promote USDC adoption and contribute to the development of the Hyperliquid ecosystem. * SBI Shinsei Bank Partners with Partior and DeCurret DCP to Explore Tokenized Crypto Payments: The partnership between Japan's SBI Shinsei Bank, Partior, and DeCurret DCP to explore cross-border transactions using tokenized deposits demonstrates growing interest from traditional financial institutions in blockchain technology and tokenization. This could pave the way for future mainstream adoption of digital assets and the development of more efficient payment systems. * Google Releases Open-Source Protocol for AI Payments Supporting Stablecoins: Google's release of an open-source protocol for AI-driven payments supporting stablecoins indicates the advancing integration of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and blockchain technology. This could encourage the use of stablecoins as payment methods within AI applications, potentially creating new economic ecosystems. [Overall Summary] Factors such as regulatory clarity from authorities, expectations of Fed rate cuts, and the convergence of AI and blockchain technology are likely to positively impact the cryptocurrency market, particularly the prices of Bitcoin and Ethereum. Conversely, the growing unstaking queue and consolidation at certain resistance levels could introduce short-term volatility. Accelerated institutional adoption and regulatory progress are expected to foster market maturation, laying the foundation for sustained medium-to-long-term growth.

Risk Analysis: Potential risks include BTC's struggle to break above $117,000 and the increasing queue for ETH staking withdrawals, posing a risk of weakening short-term market sentiment. ARB's key support level is situated around $0.95. Additionally, excessive risk-off sentiment across the broader market and intensifying competition within the Layer 2 ecosystem warrant attention.

In the short term, expect correlation with BTC, trading within a range. Medium-term: Should BTC challenge the $120,000 level, ARB may see a corresponding upward movement. Potential catalysts include the outcome of the FOMC meeting and advancements within the Layer 2 ecosystem.

While the ARB market is currently in a neutral state lacking clear direction, we maintain a bullish outlook in the medium to long term, driven by improvements in the macroeconomic environment and its growth potential as a Layer 2 solution. Recent market data indicates that ARB is consolidating in a range around $1, with a neutral RSI and no decisive MACD crossover, confirming the lack of short-term directionality. However, fundamental factors such as the expansion of Bitcoin ETF options trading in the US, regulatory clarity in the UK, and expectations of potential Fed rate cuts are generating positive sentiment across the broader cryptocurrency market, creating a favorable tailwind for ARB. Entering at this juncture requires caution. It would be prudent to consider buying opportunities on dips once ARB decisively breaks above the resistance zone at $1.05-$1.10. A decline to the short-term support level between $0.95 and $0.90 could be considered a potential accumulation opportunity, provided the overall market sentiment does not deteriorate. Key levels to watch this week are the resistance at $1.10 and support at $0.95. A decisive break above these levels or a reversal from them will likely determine the next trend. We recommend setting profit targets between $1.20-$1.30 upon a successful breakout, with strict stop-loss orders below $0.90. For effective risk management, it is crucial to monitor the trend of Bitcoin dominance, developments in competition within the Layer 2 ecosystem, and the progress of ARB's native development. Regulatory clarity and institutional adoption will foster market maturation, establishing a solid foundation for long-term growth for prominent Layer 2 projects such as ARB. Furthermore, innovations like the integration of AI and blockchain possess the potential to create novel use cases. It is advisable to identify strategic entry points and invest with a focus on future growth potential, rather than being swayed by market fluctuations.