aptos Analysis Thumbnail

Aptos (APT) Market Analysis: October 13, 2025

2025-10-12

Price

$3.93 7.85%

Summary

Bitcoin's retest of the Golden Cross and BNB's new all-time high are contributing to bullish market sentiment. The recent market downturn is seen as driven by short-term factors, with minimal impact on long-term fundamentals. Overall, the market bias remains neutral to slightly bullish, although caution is warranted regarding volatility.

Fundamentals

Bitcoin Re-tests Golden Cross, Historical Patterns Fuel Bull Market Expectations Past Bitcoin golden crosses preceded significant price surges of 2,200% and 1,190%. Currently hovering near $110,000, Bitcoin could trigger a similar parabolic rise if it maintains this level, potentially boosting bullish sentiment among market participants and driving further capital inflows, which could positively influence APT's price trajectory. ・Market Crash Attributed to Short-Term Factors, Limited Impact on Long-Term Fundamentals Friday's sharp market decline is analyzed as a result of a combination of short-term factors, including excessive leverage, risk-taking behavior, and the announcement of tariffs by President Trump against China. Analysts point out that this crash does not signal a long-term bearish trend or deteriorating fundamentals. Therefore, this temporary price drop could be viewed as a buying opportunity for the overall cryptocurrency market, including APT, fostering expectations for a return to healthy growth in the medium to long term. ・BNB Hits New All-Time High, Viewed as Undervalued "Blue Chip" BNB surpassing its all-time high (ATH) above $1,300 is seen as a testament to the network's reliability. The CEO of CEA Industries referred to BNB as "the most overlooked blue chip in the market," suggesting its rally reflects its long-undervalued fundamentals finally gaining market recognition. BNB's strong performance indicates growth and expanding adoption within its platform ecosystem, potentially serving as a positive signal for other platform tokens and related projects like APT. ・Crypto Traders Cite Trump Tariffs for Market Drop, Analysts Suggest Deeper Causes While some crypto traders attribute the market downturn to President Trump's announcement of tariffs on China, analysts like those at Santiment suggest this is typical "rationalization" behavior among retail traders. They point to deeper, underlying factors beyond a single event contributing to the market's slump, likely including a combination of market volatility, excessive leverage, and liquidity issues. Against this backdrop, while APT's price may be influenced by short-term market sentiment, its trajectory will increasingly depend on macroeconomic trends and the project's intrinsic fundamentals. ・Hyperliquid Whale Holding 100K BTC Linked to Former BitForex CEO On-chain investigations have linked a Hyperliquid whale, managing over 100,000 BTC, to the former CEO of the exchange BitForex, which was involved in a fraud scandal. This information raises concerns regarding the movements of major holders and the trustworthiness of exchanges. The identification of such large holders fuels speculation about market manipulation and access to insider information, potentially impacting liquidity and price formation in the altcoin market, including for APT. ・Bitcoin Eyes Liquidity Grab at $114,000 as Traders Bet on Price Recovery Bitcoin is targeting a liquidity grab at $114,000 ahead of the weekly close, with traders anticipating a price recovery into next week. Despite a $19 billion liquidation event, Bitcoin's bull market uptrend is expected to remain intact. This situation suggests a resilient underlying market trend despite short-term volatility. As APT tends to correlate with Bitcoin's movements, such optimistic outlooks could contribute to the stabilization and potential rise of APT's price. ・US Senate Passes GAIN Act Prioritizing Domestic Sales of AI & HPC Chips The US Senate has passed the "GAIN Act," requiring manufacturers of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and High-Performance Computing (HPC) chips to prioritize domestic demand before exporting their products overseas. The legislation aims to accelerate the development and adoption of AI technologies and may stimulate investment in related semiconductor sectors. Web3 infrastructure and decentralized AI projects like APT could potentially benefit from this bill, serving as a factor supporting their long-term growth. Overall Summary Overall, the market is showing signs of recovery from Friday's significant downturn, with multiple bullish signals observed, including Bitcoin's golden cross re-test and BNB's new all-time high. Analysts suggest the recent market crash was driven by short-term factors with limited impact on long-term fundamentals. However, uncertainties remain, such as the presence of a whale linked to a former major exchange CEO. Consequently, APT's price is expected to maintain a gradual upward trend, albeit with volatility, while closely monitoring macroeconomic developments, technical indicators, and individual project progress.

Chart Analysis

Technical Analysis

The RSI is at 38.4, situated in the neutral zone, indicating neither an overbought nor oversold condition. The MACD has not crossed, showing no clear sign of a trend. Price action within the Bollinger Bands suggests trading within the standard volatility range, forming a neutral chart pattern at present.

Key Price Levels

Key support levels are located at the recent low of $4, followed by $3.5. Resistance is set at the recent high of $6 and the psychological level of $7. A break above $6 would signal bullish momentum, while a drop below $4 would increase bearish pressure, making these critical stop-loss points.

Risk Analysis

Downside risks warrant close attention due to short-term market volatility, excessive leverage, and potential links between large holders and former exchange CEOs. A significant support level lies near the recent low of $4. Vigilance is necessary concerning macroeconomic uncertainties and news related to exchanges.

Outlook

Over the next 24-48 hours, a gradual recovery within the current range is expected, closely following Bitcoin's price action. In the medium term (1 week), approaching the previous high of $6 is a potential target, provided that market sentiment remains supportive. Potential catalysts include sustained upward momentum in Bitcoin and positive developments regarding Web3 infrastructure.

Conclusion

The APT market shows signs of recovery from its recent downturn, exhibiting a neutral-to-slightly-bullish bias. The retest of the BTC golden cross and BNB's All-Time High (ATH) are acting as bullish signals, with the latest crash analyzed as being driven by temporary factors. However, potential volatility requires caution due to lingering uncertainties, such as concerns surrounding large holders (whales). The strategy suggests accumulating positions around the $4 mark, setting a short-term target at $6, and aligning the long-term target with broader market recovery trends. Ensure rigorous risk management by placing stop-losses below $4. This week, monitoring BTC's movement around the $114k level and observing APT-specific developments will be crucial for identifying strategic entry and exit points.

*This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or recommendations. Cryptocurrency investments carry high price volatility risks. Please make investment decisions at your own discretion and responsibility.