aptos Analysis Thumbnail

Aptos (APT) Market Analysis: October 7, 2025

2025-10-06

Price

$5.34 2.90%

Summary

Record institutional inflows and Bitcoin achieving a new all-time high are propelling the market. The expanding US fiscal deficit further bolsters Bitcoin's strength. However, volatility necessitates caution, particularly amidst calls for prudence. The overall market bias remains bullish, although short-term correction risks should be considered.

Fundamentals

* Record $5.95 Billion Inflow into Crypto Funds Concerns over a potential US government shutdown fueled a rally in the spot cryptocurrency market, leading crypto investment products to log record inflows totaling $5.95 billion. This suggests an improvement in market sentiment and growing interest in cryptocurrencies as an alternative asset class amidst macroeconomic uncertainty. Increased institutional involvement may contribute to enhanced liquidity and price stability, potentially supporting a medium- to long-term uptrend. * MicroStrategy Reports $3.9 Billion Q3 Gain on Bitcoin Holdings, Pauses Purchases MicroStrategy, led by Michael Saylor, reported $3.9 billion in unrealized gains from its Bitcoin holdings in the third quarter, while also announcing a pause in its regular weekly Bitcoin purchases. This suggests a strategic decision by the company amidst Bitcoin's ascent to new all-time highs (ATHs). The cessation of large-scale acquisitions near record levels may indicate anticipation of a short-term price correction, although the firm's enduring commitment to Bitcoin underscores the market's growing maturity. * Standard Chartered Predicts Over $1 Trillion Outflow from Emerging Market Banks to Stablecoins by 2028 Driven by accelerating demand for USD-pegged crypto assets in emerging markets, Standard Chartered forecasts that over $1 trillion could potentially flow out of emerging market banks into stablecoins by 2028. This shift signifies capital movement away from traditional financial systems in pursuit of higher yields. While the proliferation of stablecoins may foster financial inclusion, particularly in emerging economies, it also presents novel challenges for regulatory bodies. * Grayscale Launches Staking for Ethereum and Solana ETFs, First in the US Crypto asset manager Grayscale has launched staking services for its Ethereum and Solana Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs), marking the first time in the US that such passive income opportunities are available directly through ETFs. This move expands the avenues for institutional investors to generate yield on their crypto holdings, making investments in major altcoins like Ethereum and Solana potentially more attractive. Consequently, this is expected to attract fresh capital inflows, possibly exerting upward pressure on prices. * New Japanese Prime Minister Could Boost Risk Assets and Crypto Market The potential rise of Sanae Takaichi as Japan's new Prime Minister could serve as a political tailwind for risk assets, including the cryptocurrency market. Her emergence has been linked to the Nikkei index reaching record highs, potentially signaling expectations for regulatory easing and more pro-crypto policies within Japan. This could lead to an expansion of Japanese influence on the international crypto landscape. * Bitcoin Surges to New All-Time High; Analysts Eye $150,000+ Bitcoin reached a new all-time high (ATH), with analysts suggesting potential for further gains beyond $150,000 in the upcoming weeks. This signals the continuation of a bull market, underpinned by institutional demand, macroeconomic uncertainties, and persistent inflows into Bitcoin ETFs. Although short-term corrections are acknowledged as possible, the prevailing medium- to long-term upward trend is projected to continue. * Morgan Stanley Recommends "Conservative" Crypto Allocation in Some Portfolios Major financial services firm Morgan Stanley has issued guidelines recommending a "conservative" cryptocurrency allocation within specific portfolios. This reflects a more cautious stance as institutional investors evaluate incorporating digital assets. The recommendation suggests allocations of up to 4%, varying by portfolio type, hinting at the potential for more structural and sustained capital inflows into the cryptocurrency market. * $6 Billion Daily US Debt Growth Strengthens Bitcoin's Appeal As US national debt approaches $38 trillion, with an estimated daily increase of $6 billion, investors are increasingly turning towards safe-haven assets such as Bitcoin and gold. This trend reflects declining confidence in fiat currencies and heightened inflation concerns, bolstering Bitcoin's appeal as both an inflation hedge and a store of value. The growing US fiscal deficit may further strengthen the long-term demand for Bitcoin as a decentralized digital asset. Overall Summary: The digital asset market exhibited an overall bullish trend yesterday, driven by record institutional inflows, Bitcoin surpassing its all-time high, and the expanding US fiscal deficit. Particularly, inflows into ETFs and accommodative regulatory developments (such as the new Japanese Prime Minister and potential expansion of options trading for US ETFs) are seen as key drivers of market growth. Conversely, certain capital outflows and conservative allocation recommendations from major financial institutions highlight existing market volatility and underscore the need for a cautious approach. In summary, while the medium- to long-term upward trajectory is expected to persist, vigilance regarding potential short-term corrections is warranted.

Chart Analysis

Technical Analysis

The RSI is at 55, positioned in the neutral zone, indicating neither overbought nor oversold conditions. There is no crossover on the MACD, suggesting a lack of clear directional momentum. Bollinger Bands indicate that the price is trading within the bands, implying movement within the current volatility range. With a trend strength reading of 0.0, the market is neutral, and a definitive trend cannot be confirmed.

Key Price Levels

The current resistance level is the recent high of $6, with the support level at the recent low of $4. A decisive breakout above $6 could signal further upside potential. Conversely, a breakdown below $4 might indicate a temporary downtrend. It is prudent to set short-term profit targets near $6 and stop-losses below $4.

Risk Analysis

Risks of a sharp market correction include profit-taking sell-offs and macroeconomic uncertainties. MicroStrategy's pause in its purchasing activities could also impact short-term sentiment. While key support levels are near previous lows, caution is warranted against emerging downward pressures. Regulatory developments and the progression of the US debt ceiling issue remain factors requiring close monitoring.

Outlook

**Outlook:** Over the next 24-48 hours, consolidation within a range or a minor pullback is expected. Caution is warranted regarding profit-taking pressure following the recent all-time high. For the medium-term outlook (approximately one week), a gradual uptrend is anticipated to continue, underpinned by strong fundamentals. Key catalysts will likely be sustained inflows into ETFs and positive policy expectations in Japan.

Conclusion

Overall, the market sentiment is bullish, driven by record fund inflows, Bitcoin reaching new All-Time Highs (ATH), and widening US fiscal deficits. Sustained ETF inflows and positive policy expectations in Japan are also supporting medium-to-long-term growth. For investment strategy, pay close attention to the $6 resistance and $4 support levels in the short term, as buying on pullbacks is recommended. Aim for profit targets above $7, with stop-loss levels set around $3.5, entering positions during pullbacks within the $4-$5 range. Breaking above $6 while maintaining the $4 level is crucial this week. Monitor these levels for breakouts and breakdowns to identify optimal trading points. Always keep an eye on potential risks such as regulatory announcements and deteriorating macroeconomic indicators. While the cryptocurrency market is dynamic, strengthening fundamentals and increasing institutional involvement signal a promising outlook. Capitalize on growth opportunities through prudent risk management and strategic execution.

*This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or recommendations. Cryptocurrency investments carry high price volatility risks. Please make investment decisions at your own discretion and responsibility.