Massive inflows into US-based ETFs, the expansion of the stablecoin market, and bullish predictions from major financial institutions are providing a strong tailwind for the overall market. This suggests renewed confidence among institutional investors and increased capital inflows, indicating a bullish market bias overall.

・Massive inflows into US Spot Bitcoin ETFs Record-breaking inflows into US-domiciled Spot Bitcoin ETFs early in October signal a resurgence of institutional investor confidence in Bitcoin and anticipation of further price appreciation. This trend, combined with October historically being a period conducive to bull markets, is likely to contribute to a stable rise in Bitcoin's price and stimulate overall market activity. Notably, inflows approaching record highs are also expected to enhance market liquidity and facilitate the price discovery mechanism. ・Stablecoin Market Surpasses $300 Billion The stablecoin market capitalization exceeding $300 billion, representing a 46.8% year-to-date growth, serves as clear evidence of revitalized capital inflows into the sector. This suggests an increasing number of investors are entering the cryptocurrency market and actively engaging in trading, Decentralized Finance (DeFi), and other activities, potentially acting as "rocket fuel" for the overall market's expansion. The potential for liquidity provision by AI agents further hints at future enhancements in market efficiency and scale. ・FTX Founder SBF's "Biggest Mistake" Statement Sam Bankman-Fried's (SBF) assertion that handing over management control to the new CEO before FTX's bankruptcy was his "biggest mistake" could offer a novel perspective on the circumstances surrounding the exchange's collapse. However, given that SBF is currently incarcerated and considerable time has passed since the event, the direct impact of this statement on market sentiment is expected to be limited. It is more likely to serve as a cautionary reminder of the importance of robust safeguards against the recurrence of such failures. ・Major Financial Institutions Predict Bullish Q4 for Bitcoin Bullish fourth-quarter (Q4) price forecasts for Bitcoin, ranging from $133,000 to $200,000, from major financial institutions such as JPMorgan and Citigroup underscore the persistently positive outlook among institutional investors. These predictions, supported by ongoing ETF inflows and correlations with gold, suggest Bitcoin has the potential to surpass its previous all-time high, likely exerting a positive influence on market psychology. ・Shift in Crypto VC Investment Stance The transition observed in crypto venture capital (VC) investment strategies—moving from chasing "narratives" to adopting a more cautious approach—is a sign of market maturation. As VCs apply stricter criteria to their investment decisions, capital allocation towards sustainable projects is likely to increase, fostering the overall healthy development of the market. Nevertheless, this shift may also temporarily dampen fundraising activities. ・Gemini Executive on Potential Bitcoin Cycle Continuation An executive from Gemini has suggested that while Bitcoin's four-year cycle might evolve differently compared to the past, its continuation in some form is probable. This perspective is noteworthy for market participants, implying that Bitcoin's characteristic price fluctuation patterns have not disappeared entirely. It highlights the importance of analyzing current market conditions while still referencing historical cycles. ・Coinbase Applies for National Trust Bank Charter Coinbase's application to the US Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) for a national trust bank charter represents a strategic move by a leading US crypto firm to expand its operations within the established regulatory framework. Obtaining this charter could enable Coinbase to offer a broader range of financial services, potentially accelerating the integration of digital assets into the traditional financial system. ・Bitcoin Nears All-Time Highs as Market Cap Exceeds $4.21 Trillion Bitcoin's 14% weekly surge, recovering towards the $124,000 mark, accompanied by the total crypto market capitalization surpassing $4.21 trillion, demonstrates a strengthening market recovery and Bitcoin's pivotal role as a market driver. Uncertainty surrounding a potential US government shutdown has increased demand for Bitcoin as a safe-haven asset, with on-chain data also indicating rising buying pressure. In the short term, Bitcoin is likely to test resistance around the $130,000 level, potentially entering a price discovery phase. ・Over $500M Inflows into Solana ETPs; CME Futures OI Surges Inflows exceeding $500 million into Solana (SOL) Exchange-Traded Products (ETPs) and record-high Open Interest (OI) in SOL futures traded on the CME (Chicago Mercantile Exchange) highlight significant institutional interest and capital allocation towards SOL. These trends could catalyze further price appreciation for SOL and positively influence the broader altcoin market. [Overall Summary] The substantial inflows into US Spot Bitcoin ETFs and the stablecoin market's expansion beyond $300 billion indicate broadening institutional participation and increased capital flow, creating a significant tailwind for the overall cryptocurrency market. Bullish price predictions for Bitcoin from major financial institutions provide further support for market sentiment, intensifying expectations for a new all-time high. Conversely, the evolving investment approach of VCs and news related to FTX underscore market maturation and the importance of learning from past experiences. Sustained future growth will likely depend on collaboration with regulators and a strategic focus on investing in fundamentally robust projects.

While SBF's statements have had a limited market impact, the shifting investment stance among Venture Capitalists (VCs) carries the risk of temporary fundraising slowdowns. The recent price decline (-3.20%) and volatility (1.86%) are also factors to monitor. The key support level is the recent low of $4.

In the short term, while strong fundamentals suggest potential upside, neutral technical indicators indicate that minor corrections are also possible. Over the medium term (1 week), continued inflows into ETFs and bullish forecasts from major financial institutions are likely to support further price appreciation.

**Conclusion:** The overall assessment is **cautiously optimistic**. Market momentum is driven by substantial inflows into US-based ETFs, the expansion of the stablecoin market, and bullish forecasts from major financial institutions. While there is a risk of short-term corrections, the medium-term uptrend is expected to persist. As an investment strategy, buying on dips near the support zone of $4-$5 is recommended. Profit-taking targets are set above $6, with strict stop-loss orders implemented below $4. This week, focus on monitoring the potential breakout above $6. Keep track of ETF flows and market volatility to strategically capture opportunities through disciplined trading.