
Aptos (APT) Market Analysis: October 1, 2025
2025-09-30
Price
$4.36▲ 1.40%
Summary
Visa's stablecoin settlement pilot, Animoca Brands' tokenization of shares, and the SEC's stance on DePIN tokens signal the crypto industry's evolution and integration into the real economy.
Considering these positive fundamentals alongside neutral technical indicators, the overall market bias is assessed as cautiously optimistic.
Fundamentals
Visa Launches Stablecoin Pilot for Cross-Border Payments Using USDC and EURC
Visa's launch of a pilot program for cross-border payments using stablecoins marks a significant step in accelerating the convergence of Traditional Finance (TradFi) and crypto assets. This initiative is expected to reduce fees and improve settlement speed for international remittances, thereby enhancing convenience for both individual and corporate users. It signals the growing adoption of stablecoins as a payment method in the real economy, potentially contributing to increased liquidity and subsequent price stabilization and appreciation across the broader crypto market. The utilization of EURC, in particular, is likely to boost stablecoin adoption within the European market.
Animoca Brands' Shares to be Tokenized on Solana
The news that shares of Web3 investment firm Animoca Brands will be tokenized on Solana demonstrates further progress in the tokenization of Real-World Assets (RWA). This move will enable retail investors, who previously faced significant barriers, to invest in high-growth Web3 companies like Animoca Brands, fostering enhanced liquidity and creating new investment opportunities. RWA tokenization is increasing the maturity of the crypto asset market and paving the way for deploying a wider range of asset classes on the blockchain. Conducting this on Solana will also contribute to the expansion of the blockchain's ecosystem.
Bitcoin Continues its Institutionalization
The analysis suggesting that Bitcoin is becoming "institutionalized," with its traditional characteristics of anonymity and decentralization being incorporated into the frameworks of Wall Street and regulatory bodies, indicates market maturation while simultaneously hinting at a departure from its original ethos. While institutionalization may facilitate entry for institutional investors and contribute to price stabilization, concerns remain about potentially undermining the principle of decentralization. This trend suggests Bitcoin is evolving from a purely speculative asset into one integrated within the broader financial system, which will likely influence its medium- to long-term price formation.
SEC Rules DePIN Tokens Outside its Jurisdiction
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission's (SEC) determination that DePIN (Decentralized Physical Infrastructure Networks) tokens are "fundamentally outside its jurisdiction" provides a significant tailwind for investment in the DePIN sector. This regulatory clarity is expected to free DePIN projects from uncertainty, thereby accelerating their development and fundraising efforts. DePIN leverages blockchain technology to build real-world infrastructure, and its proliferation could become a new growth engine for the crypto market. Collaboration with fields like Artificial Intelligence (AI) and the Internet of Things (IoT) is particularly anticipated, contributing to long-term market expansion.
XRP Accumulation by Whales Suggests Potential Price Surge
The accumulation of XRP by whales (large holders) indicates bullish sentiment among market participants and anticipation of future price appreciation. While breaking the $3.05 resistance level is a short-term necessity, $4.20 is suggested as the next target price. XRP's strengths lie in its utility for international remittance and payments. As its relationship with regulators improves, its value is likely to be re-evaluated. Whale activity could serve as a signal corroborating these positive prospects.
Circle Partners with Deutsche Börse to Promote Stablecoin Adoption in Europe
Circle, the issuer of USDC, partnering with Deutsche Börse, the German stock exchange operator, to promote stablecoin adoption (particularly EURC) in Europe is crucial for enhancing the credibility and utility of stablecoins. This collaboration could advance the adoption of a digital euro in Europe and streamline cross-border payments. Integration with traditional financial infrastructure represents a key step towards incorporating stablecoins into the broader financial system, thereby improving market confidence and driving adoption.
IoTeX Launches Decentralized AI Platform "AI Foundry"
IoTeX's launch of "AI Foundry" accelerates the trend toward decentralization within the Artificial Intelligence (AI) sector. Amid concerns regarding the vast computational resources and energy consumption required for training AI models (as mentioned in Article 11), a decentralized approach holds the potential to foster a more efficient and open AI ecosystem. The convergence of AI and blockchain promises novel use cases, and IoTeX's initiative is noteworthy for gauging the future potential in this domain.
NFTs on Base Surpass Ethereum Rivals in Sales Volume
The news that the NFT ecosystem on Ethereum's Layer-2 network Base surpassed its Ethereum counterparts in sales volume in September highlights the network's rapid growth and the diversification within the NFT market. The surge, driven particularly by AI-driven trading games, signals an emerging trend at the intersection of NFTs and AI. Base's momentum may encourage the expansion of the NFT market beyond the Ethereum ecosystem, attracting new entrants by offering a platform for NFT transactions with more affordable fees.
Bitcoin Potentially Bottomed at $108,000; Analysts Predict Rise to $118,000-$124,500
Analysis indicating that multiple indicators suggest Bitcoin may have bottomed near $108,650, with analysts forecasting a short-term rise to between $118,000 and $124,500, signals improving market sentiment and a potential return to a bull market. The decline in Entity-Adjusted Dormancy Flow and the negative Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) for short-term holders suggest weakening selling pressure. These factors could boost investor confidence and encourage further capital inflows.
Ether Recovers Above $4,000; October Rally Factors Highlighted
Ether's recovery above $4,000 and expectations for an October rally reflect an optimistic outlook for the Ether ecosystem. A decrease in ETH supply from exchanges and increased weekly Decentralized Exchange (DEX) trading volume are signs of bullish market sentiment. Historically, October has seen average gains for ETH, and the combination of these factors could drive further price appreciation for Ether.
Overall Summary
Strengthened initiatives in stablecoins by traditional financial institutions like Visa and Deutsche Börse, along with the tokenization of Animoca Brands' shares, indicate that cryptocurrencies are becoming increasingly integrated into the real economy and investment markets. The SEC's ruling on DePIN tokens is expected to boost growth in that sector. Conversely, the ongoing institutionalization of Bitcoin raises concerns about its impact on the principle of decentralization. Overall, while regulatory clarity is advancing, the crypto market is transitioning towards a maturation phase through the integration of new technologies and asset classes. In October, attention is likely to focus on individual altcoins, including the recovery of Ether and accumulation activity in XRP.
Chart Analysis
Technical Analysis
The current RSI reading of 62.6 sits in the neutral zone, showing no signs of overheating.
The MACD exhibits no clear crossover, resulting in an ambiguous trend direction, and the trend strength is neutral at 0.0.
The Bollinger Bands are containing the price within their limits, indicating subdued volatility and suggesting stable price action.
Key Price Levels
Short-term support is identified at $3.80, with resistance at $4.20.
A breakout above $4.50 acts as the key pivot point, potentially leading to further upside.
Conversely, a breakdown below $3.70 would signal a loss of short-term momentum and serve as the stop-loss level. Take-profit targets are set at $4.80 and $5.20.
Risk Analysis
Global macroeconomic uncertainties and emerging regulatory developments pose potential downside risks to the price.
Furthermore, the increasing institutionalization of Bitcoin may raise concerns about its inherent decentralization.
Key support levels remain unclear at this time, but the $4.00 vicinity is viewed as short-term psychological support.
Outlook
**Outlook:**
Over the next 24-48 hours, positive fundamentals are expected to underpin market sentiment, pointing towards modest gains.
Within the coming week, partnerships involving Visa and Deutsche Börse, alongside advancements in RWA (Real-World Asset) tokenization, could revitalize the altcoin market.
Key catalysts to monitor include progress on stablecoin pilots and continued capital inflows into the DePIN (Decentralized Physical Infrastructure Networks) sector.
Conclusion
Overall, the current market is in a transformative phase, characterized by the increasing convergence of traditional finance and crypto assets, alongside the continuous emergence of novel use cases.
Positive fundamental drivers, such as Visa and Circle's adoption of stablecoins, Animoca Brands' tokenization of equities, and regulatory clarity within the DePIN sector, are poised to support sustained market growth.
While technically neutral, these strong catalysts suggest a cautiously optimistic market bias.
As an action plan for investors, we recommend buying on dips in the $3.80-$3.90 range, setting initial short-term profit targets at $4.50, followed by $5.00. For rigorous risk management, maintain a strict stop-loss level at $3.70.
This week, attention should be paid to a potential breakout above the $4.20 resistance level, the confirmation of which would signal a further uptrend. Conversely, caution is warranted against any moves below $3.70.
Continuously monitor macroeconomic trends and regulatory news, while closely tracking whale activity and changes in Decentralized Finance Total Value Locked (TVL). Seizing opportunities requires diligent research and rational decision-making.
*This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or recommendations. Cryptocurrency investments carry high price volatility risks. Please make investment decisions at your own discretion and responsibility.