The expansion of options trading for US Bitcoin ETFs is driving institutional adoption and showing signs of price stabilization. However, $200 million in outflows driven by hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) remarks are creating short-term downward pressure. Concurrently, the launch of the UK's tokenized deposit pilot signals a convergence of Traditional Finance (TradFi) assets with the digital asset market, bolstering the foundation for long-term growth. Overall, while the market faces headwinds from short-term macroeconomic uncertainty and profit-taking pressure, significant structural positives, including ETF proliferation and ongoing tokenization efforts, are evident. The current market bias is assessed as neutral.

・Expansion of Bitcoin ETF Options Trading in the US The expansion of Bitcoin ETF options trading in the US, facilitated by eased SEC regulations, is promoting institutional investor participation and is expected to contribute to Bitcoin price stabilization. Growth in the options market enhances liquidity and is anticipated to curb volatility. This is projected to attract new capital inflows, providing support for medium-to-long-term price appreciation. ・Significant $200 Million Outflow from Digital Asset Funds Hawkish rhetoric from the Federal Reserve has deteriorated investor sentiment, ending a 15-week streak of inflows into digital asset funds. This outflow is exerting short-term downward pressure on Bitcoin's price. Selling pressure may persist as long as macroeconomic uncertainties continue. ・Layer 1 Blockchains Poised as the Foundation for Crypto in 2025 2025 is shaping up to be a year of transition towards 'utility' in the digital asset industry, marked by the finalization of stablecoin frameworks, the entry of tokenized assets into mainstream markets, and the initiation of on-chain transactions by AI. Layer 1 blockchains are being redefined from mere experiments to essential infrastructure supporting real-world adoption, potentially driving further investment into foundational technologies like Ethereum and Solana. ・UK Pilot for Tokenized Sterling Deposits Launched UK Finance, alongside six major banks, has initiated a pilot program for tokenized deposits (GBTD), representing commercial bank money digitally. This initiative highlights the rapid advancement of tokenization within traditional finance (TradFi) and could act as a catalyst for increased institutional participation in the digital asset market. ・Bitcoin Miner TeraWulf to Raise $3 Billion for Google-Backed Data Center Crypto mining firm TeraWulf plans to raise approximately $3 billion to construct a data center supported by Google. The plan reportedly includes an agreement for Google to acquire a 5.4% stake in Cipher Mining. This development signals the growing convergence of AI and blockchain technologies, alongside increased infrastructure investment from major tech companies. ・OpenAI's ChatGPT 'Pulse' Announcement Hints at AI's Role in Crypto Trading OpenAI has unveiled 'Pulse', a new feature delivering personalized daily updates based on user interests. This suggests AI's potential to aid trading decisions for both retail and broader market participants, signaling a deepening integration between AI and blockchain technologies. ・Bitcoin Dips to 4-Week Low Amid Signs of 'Exhaustion' Bitcoin has fallen to its lowest point in four weeks. On-chain analytics firm Glassnode points to signs of market 'exhaustion,' citing profit-taking by long-term holders reaching levels comparable to past cycle tops and a slowdown in ETF inflows. This suggests potential for a short-term price correction, warranting a cautious approach from investors. ・Solana Breaks Below $200; ETF Decision May Trigger 'Institutional Moment' Solana (SOL) has fallen below the $200 mark. However, the upcoming decision on spot ETFs could unlock significant institutional capital inflows. This suggests that ETF approvals might serve as a catalyst, attracting institutional investment into major altcoins. ・BlackRock Files for Bitcoin 'Premium Income' ETF, a Potential 'Sequel' to IBIT Asset management giant BlackRock has filed for a new Bitcoin 'Premium Income' ETF. The fund aims to generate yield by selling covered call options on Bitcoin futures contracts and collecting premiums. This move could potentially accelerate institutional adoption by offering more sophisticated ways to integrate Bitcoin into investment portfolios. ・Chainlink Co-founder: Tokenized TradFi Assets Will 'Redefine' Crypto Industry Sergey Nazarov, co-founder of Chainlink Labs, stated that the path toward tokenizing the financial system is becoming clearer, potentially facilitated by regulatory evolution. He believes the migration of traditional financial assets onto the blockchain could fundamentally reshape the digital asset industry's structure. ・Overall Summary While the market currently grapples with macroeconomic uncertainty and profit-taking pressures, positive developments including the expansion of ETFs, infrastructure investments by major technology companies, and the tokenization of traditional financial assets are advancing. The increasing application of AI and the heightened significance of Layer 1 blockchains are establishing the groundwork for long-term utility and growth in the digital asset market. Moving forward, regulatory developments and macroeconomic indicators are likely to drive short-term price fluctuations, whereas these fundamental structural advancements are poised to propel medium-to-long-term market expansion.

The Federal Reserve's hawkish stance, accompanied by significant outflows from cryptocurrency funds, is heightening short-term downside risks. Signs of Bitcoin exhaustion and profit-taking by long-term holders also suggest the potential for further price adjustments. The recent low around $4 is eyed as a key support level. A break below this level could trigger further selling pressure, warranting close attention.

**Outlook:** In the short term (24-48 hours), the outlook suggests range-bound trading or a continued gradual decline, primarily due to macroeconomic uncertainties and outflow pressures. Without significant positive news, substantial buying interest is unlikely to emerge. For the medium term (within the next week), there is potential for a rebound. This could be catalyzed by a cessation of outflows, fresh inflows into ETFs, or notable progress in tokenization initiatives. Key catalysts to monitor will be the decision regarding the Solana ETF and the activities of major institutional players.

Despite facing current macroeconomic headwinds and profit-taking pressure, the market is supported by strong structural tailwinds, including the expansion of Bitcoin ETF options, advancements in tokenized traditional financial assets, and the convergence of AI and blockchain. These factors strengthen conviction in the long-term utility and growth of the crypto asset market, regardless of short-term price fluctuations. Strategically, it is prudent to maintain a neutral stance at this juncture and await clear trend signals. When considering entry points, buying on pullbacks around the support levels of $3.8 to $4 is recommended, coupled with a strict stop-loss (e.g., below $3.5). Profit-taking targets should be set at the recent high of $5, with potential upside towards $5.5 to $6. From a risk management perspective, Federal Reserve policy actions, inflation indicators, ETF inflow/outflow data, and signs of capitulation as highlighted by Glassnode require close monitoring, as these elements can amplify short-term volatility. However, ongoing positive developments, such as the evolution of Layer 1 blockchains and infrastructure investments by major technology firms, signal a maturing crypto asset market transitioning towards broader utility. Investors should continue to adopt a calm and strategic approach, remaining unfazed by short-term noise, to capitalize on this wave of structural transformation.